Over the last year or so, I’ve noticed something odd happening in the consumer world. It’s subtle, but once you see it, you can’t unsee it. People aren’t behaving according to any of the neat models we’ve used for the past few decades. They’re not responding to incentives the way they’re supposed to. They’re not “loyal” in the way loyalty programs want them to be. They’re not even especially consistent.
They’re just … vibing.
That’s the only word that halfway fits.
This isn’t a scientific term, though economists have started trying to make it one (“vibecession” being the most unintentionally revealing example). But it’s showing up everywhere: in how people talk about money, how they rationalize their purchases, and how they switch allegiances between brands, hobbies, habits, and preferences.
There’s a gap – a widening one – between what people say they value and the decisions they actually make. And that gap is being filled by something very human, very irrational, and very difficult to model: the vibe of the moment.
I’ll give you an example.
If you stand in a grocery store around 5:30pm, you will watch hundreds of tiny, emotion-driven decisions play out. People aren’t shopping for groceries. They’re trying to solve a dozen micro-problems in their heads at the same time:
“I’m tired.”
“I should eat better.”
“I deserve something.”
“I don’t want to cook.”
“I want to feel in control of at least one thing today.”
None of this shows up in a CRM.
None of this is captured in points systems.
None of this is forecastable.
This is vibe-based decision making.
And here’s why this matters: most of the tools we’ve built to influence customer behavior assume the exact opposite. They assume people are calm, predictable, rational creatures with a little bit of quirk on top. They assume you can motivate behavior the way you motivate a spreadsheet: push a value here, watch the effect over there.
But the modern consumer is a lot closer to:
“I feel like X right now – help me justify it.”
That’s not rational.
It’s emotional economics.
And our incentive systems aren’t built for it.
Where Incentives Break Down
Traditional incentive design is rigid. It has to be. If rules are too flexible, you can’t forecast cost. If logic is too situational, you can’t scale it. So you end up with the same formats we’ve all seen a thousand times:
- “Spend $100, get $10.”
- “Buy two more visits this month.”
- “We personalized this just for you.”
Except none of it feels personal.
None of it matches the emotional reality of the moment.
And frankly, none of it matters anymore.
The disconnect is almost comical. Brands build elaborate earn/burn structures while customers are thinking, “I’m stressed and I want something easy.” Or: “I’m proud of myself today — give me something that keeps this going.” Or: “It’s raining and I want to treat myself.”
Incentive systems talk in equations.
Customers talk in immediate emotional needs.
These are not the same language.
A Strange Question I Can’t Shake
Here’s the question that’s been stuck in my head for months:
What if instead of giving customers incentives, we asked them what they wish the incentive was?
What would happen if people could say, in their own language:
- “Reward me for actually going to the gym today.”
- “I want a nudge to try a new café – make it worth my while.”
- “Long day. I want a small treat-guilt-free-credit.”
- “If I get my errands done before 11am, give me something playful.”
- “I’m in a good mood – push me toward the healthier option.”
These aren’t discounts.
They’re micro-motivations.
They’re expressions of intent, mood, circumstance.
They’re vibes.
When I call these vibe-centives, I’m not trying to be cute. I’m pointing to something we’ve never really made space for: incentives that originate from the customer’s internal state instead of being projected onto them by the brand.
Because here’s the truth: people know what would motivate them. Often better than a segmentation model does. They just don’t have a way to articulate it into a system that could actually respond.
Why This Might Matter More Than We Think
Three things happen when you let the customer shape their own motivation:
1. They reveal the behavior they’re already willing to perform.
This is gold. Most incentives try to manufacture demand. But a vibe-centive surfaces real demand.
2. They become co-authors of the reward.
And people value what they co-author. It’s the IKEA Effect, but for behavior.
3. You eliminate the intention-action gap.
Half the battle is getting someone to do what they already want to do.
A tiny, well-timed nudge makes that friction disappear.
Most importantly, it acknowledges something we’ve ignored for decades:
people don’t behave consistently because people aren’t consistent.
But their inconsistencies follow patterns — emotional ones.
This Isn’t About Loyalty Programs
This is about designing for the actual psychological landscape people live in.
A world where:
- Mood changes quickly
- Intent is fragile
- Stress derails rationality
- A good song can make someone change stores
- A bad meeting can make someone abandon a cart
- A sunny afternoon can turn into a shopping spree
You can call this irrational if you want. I don’t.
I think it’s human. And loyalty systems haven’t kept up.
Vibe-centives – consumer-initiated, emotion-aware micro-rewards – might be the first step toward bridging that gap.
It’s Already Happening
If you look closely, people are already doing this – just informally:
- The “I deserve this” purchase
- The “I’m doing better today” choice
- The “I need something easy” moment
- The “I’m celebrating something small” treat
- The “give me a sign” impulse
We just haven’t built systems that can meet people in those moments.
What would happen if we did?
What would it look like to design incentives around mood, momentum, context, stress levels, weather, social energy, or the hundred micro-vibes that shape a person’s day?
I don’t know exactly.
But I’m pretty sure the next generation of loyalty – or whatever replaces loyalty – is going to emerge from those questions.
Not from more tiers or more points or more “personalized offers.”
Those are artifacts of a different era.
The real opportunity is emotional architecture.
Moment-by-moment value movements.
Rewards that feel alive instead of engineered.
Or put simply: recognizing that people buy, behave, and decide based on the vibe they’re in – and building systems that finally acknowledge that reality.
Photo by Eryk Piotr Munk on Unsplash
