Brands like Coca-Cola and Macy’s helped entrench Santa Claus in popular culture, and Christmas became a retail juggernaut, super-charged by online access.
Back in July The New York Times published an article entitled “Shoppers Start Early For Holidays.” In it they reported – with great wonder and amazement – that consumers were already buying and stockpiling gifts for the December holidays. From a research perspective, my analytic takeaway could only be accurately summed up as: “Well, duh.”
Actually, I was being polite. But it seemed the only reasonable way to respond to something treated as a lightbulb moment, despite the fact this shopping pattern evolved years ago. Brand Keys identified this shopping pattern back in 2007, nearly twenty years ago. That’s not quite two decades, but c’mon! Back then, we reported that pre-pre-pre-Black Friday shopping had firmly shifted into overdrive and it wasn’t an anomaly.
In fact, in a 2021 Customerland column we reported more than half of consumers were not waiting for Thanksgiving anymore. Back then 54% of consumers planned to shop before Black Friday, +3% from the year prior. This year our 2025 survey found 65% of consumers had already shopped. But sure – let’s pretend it’s a revelation that consumers are holiday shopping in July!
The reporter’s astonishment certainly shouldn’t be shared with marketers, or retailers. Retailers (in collusion with marketers) are the ones who led this charge. Year after year, discounts got rolled out earlier and earlier – launching sales like “Black Friday” in July and events like the more-and-more frequent Amazon Prime Days. And consumers quickly adapted. They’re price-savvy, connected, and come armed with omnichannel tools.
And sure, Black Friday still resonates as a tradition and long-weekend shopping ritual for some, and maybe even family time after coming out of their Thanksgiving dinner-induced coma. But it now plays second fiddle to Black July-through-October in practical retail terms. And with the holidays soon upon us, the tradition of holiday gift-giving – the raison d’être for all this earlier-and-earlier shopping – will again be alive and well.
Giving of gifts has deep roots in religion, culture, and commerce beginning with ancient festivals like Saturnalia in Rome where small gifts were exchanged during December celebrations. Pre-Christian solstice rituals included the giving of tokens meant to bring luck and prosperity. Christianity added the influence of the Magi’s gifts to the infant Jesus, inspiring later customs of gift-giving. St. Nicholas, a 4th-century bishop known for his generosity, evolved into Sinterklaas and eventually Santa Claus.
In Medieval and Early Modern Europe, gifts – usually food, coins, or handmade items – were exchanged on feast days. The Victorian era, shaped by Dickens and a rising middle-class, emphasized family, sentimentality, and gift exchange. Mass production and the advent of department stores made gifts more accessible – and affordable.
And by the 20th century, advertising turned gift-giving into a central holiday ritual. Brands like Coca-Cola and Macy’s helped entrench Santa Claus in popular culture, and Christmas became a retail juggernaut, super-charged by online access. Today that gift-giving spans religious and secular holidays alike, allowing folks to express love, gratitude, and social connection.
Just with longer and longer holiday shopping lead-times.
Anyway, based on our annual holiday survey, a reasonable “middle ground” estimate for average gift expenditures this year look to be in the range of $650 to $900 per person, up between 1.5% and 3% YOY, depending. On income, location, and confidence in the economy, oh, and gender. Well, that’s what they told interviewers, but as everyone knows, everyone always spends a little bit more than they budgeted for! And men usually spend more than women. So, retailers and consumers are both entering the 2025 holiday season with cautious optimism. Macro signals point to that modest growth rather than a breakout year, so everybody manage those expectations.
Online spending is, as always, the clearest bright spot. Think about $255 billion, a roughly +6% YOY, with Cyber Monday remaining the single biggest day. The “hottest: categories this year are the same as last: electronics, apparel, home goods and home decor. Expect heavy early-earlier-hopefully earliest season promotions, amplified by generative-AI driven merchandising and search. The likely bottom line? While overall dollars will rise, the mix will continue tilting toward digital and mobile purchases, with shoppers hunting discounts and convenience. Value, relevance, and retailer trust will steer purchase decisions more than brand themselves.
So, retailers should prepare for a season defined by disciplined inventory, targeted discounts, strong digital experiences, and flexible payment options. Those who blend digital ease, gifting flexibility, and clear value propositions will capture the largest share of a cautious but willing audience.
So yes, New York Times, shoppers are buying early. But they’re not doing it out of impatience or holiday spirit run amok. They’re doing it because early has become the new normal. Retailers trained them to expect rolling deals, limited inventory, and algorithmic price shifts – and consumers responded with their own adaptive strategy: shop smarter, sooner, and spread the spending pain across more paychecks.
This year’s “Christmas in July” headlines aren’t breaking news; they’re just the latest reminder that the holiday season isn’t a season anymore – it’s a cycle. What once kicked off with a parade and a turkey dinner now begins with a push notification and a discount code.
And yet, for all the analytics, AI, and algorithmic optimization, the emotional core hasn’t changed. Whether it’s a Chanukah candlelight gift or a Christmas morning under-the-tree present, people still shop early for the same reason they always have – to give something meaningful to someone who matters.
So as 2025’s cautious consumers clicked “buy now” months ahead of the holidays, they weren’t rushing the season – they’ve just redefined it. The spirit of giving hasn’t moved; the calendar has.
And if retailers are smart, they will have met those early birds where they been for a while now – halfway through their holiday lists before the leaves have even started to fall!
Happy holidays!
Photo by Liz Pullan Pattathy on Unsplash
