It was W. Edwards Deming, statistician, researcher, professor, and author, who said, “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” Ain’t that the truth.
I’m a big data guy myself. Not so much big data, as much the right-amount-of-the-right-data kinda guy. Data that enables marketers to identify facts that allow them to make intelligent decisions and identify practicable insights. Distinguish data you can use to plan for now and for the future from things that are just, well, interesting. Interesting is “interesting” but not always as useful as brands really require. All this and the Deming quote came to me because it’s that time of year when “trend” lists appear like Autum leaves.
The thing is what’s being floated around right now are mostly not trends. It’s more like opinions positioned as “trends.” So, opinions. It’s become an annual ritual for many marketing and consulting, PR firms and ad agencies. Like leaf peeping. It’s all very ecclesiastical: A time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens. Including the season of offering up opinions. And while many of them turn out to be colorful (I’m referring to the opinions, but the leaves too), they’re generally short-lived (both opinions and Fall foliage) and – not to put too fine a point on it – aren’t trends. They’re mostly only opinions. 
Opinions have their uses. They allow people to express feelings about things. They’re an opportunity for companies to offer up their own perspectives. Folks use them to let off steam. And while some are more interesting than others, they tend to pile up. Just like the leaves. With the same life span. Out in early October, dry and brittle by November.
The thing is, though, opinions are not facts. They’re not predictive. They have very short “use-by” dates. Opinions are warp and woof of the already-here, not of the what’s-going-to-happen. And that’s what you really want when talking about trends. Well, real trends. You really want facts. Insights. Intelligence. More precisely, you want intelligent facts you can mine for insights that translate into trends you can use. And boy, have we got facts!
Annually Brand Keys conducts our own year-end examination of our independently validated, correlated-to-behavior, loyalty and emotional engagement compendium of category and brand facts. This year around 150,000 across B2B, B2C, and D2C categories. So, a lot of facts. And voila! A little (actually, a lot of) drill-down into the facts reveals real trends marketers and brands will have to deal with in the next 18 to 24 months. Enough to give us very granular insights into category dynamics, detours in customer journeys, expansion of consumer expectations, CX undercurrents, and arrivals and departures of category and brand and consumer values – all tempered by the current facts of economic, political, and social life in America.
We release them this time of year too, mostly as a fact-based contrast to all those free-form opinions, but also because planning for next year is in full swing. Too be fair, as predictive and as independently validated as these annual facts-into-insights-into-trends transformations are, we also conduct out own tenoris postmortemsto examine how closely what we predicted about brands and category trends actually happened and how much they correlated with market truths. Usually, r = 0.77+.
That said, one necessarily needs to view and specifically apply trends in the context of the category in which you compete, where (and how) your brand is viewed by consumers, and, of course, your very own marketing needs and objectives. So, if there’s any single trend we’ve identified where you’d like more information as it pertains to your brand in your category, give me a buzz and we can discuss real-life, real-brand applications. Because that’s what we do professionally. But in the meantime, before the future creeps up on you, here’s the trends this year’s analysis of facts identified:
AI-Driven, Hyper-Personalization: Brands will increasingly leverage enhanced AI to streamline operations, deliver hyper-personalized experiences, tailoring content, CX, and recommendations based on individual behaviors and anticipated preferences.
Decentralized Commerce: The rise of blockchain and Web3 technologies will lead brands to new forms of engagement and ownership, giving consumers more control over their own experiences.
Experiential Marketing: Creating immersive CX will continue to be key, with brands using events, pop-ups, and virtual reality to engage consumers in memorable ways.
Influencer Evolution: Micro and nano influencers will gain traction as brands seek authentic connections with partnerships focusing on long(er)-term relationships rather than one-off promotions.
Interactive Content: Engagement will rise with interactive content such as quizzes, polls, and augmented reality experiences, fostering deeper emotional connections with audiences and their brands.
Omnichannel Marketing: Brands will integrate their online and offline channels more seamlessly, providing cohesive experiences across all touchpoints to enhance customer journey. (See Social Commerce Growth below too.)
Short-Form Video Dominance: Platforms like TikTok and Instagram Reels will continue to drive the popularity of short-form video content, making it essential for brands to create snappy, engaging videos with authentic narratives.
Social Commerce Growth: Social media platforms will continue to enhance shopping features, enabling brands to sell directly through social channels, creating a more integrated shopping experience.
Sustainability Marketing: As consumers prioritize eco-friendly practices (which will become baseline expectations rather than differentiators), brands will focus on transparent sustainability initiatives, showcasing their commitment to environmental responsibility and social causes.
As to all those opinions currently being floated as trends, here’s another quote that’s particularly apt. From New York Senator, Daniel Patrick Moynihan who said, “Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.”
Because the really good thing about facts is that they’re true whether you believe them or not!
Photo by Chris Liverani on Unsplash
