Expectations offer deeper insight into the emotional drivers of brand loyalty, engagement – and yes, happiness.
When Walt Disney founded Disneyland in Anaheim, California in July 1955 he called it, “The Happiest Place on Earth.” It held that title for 57 years until 2012, when it was deposed by Denmark.
Not in the literal sense, of course. There was no dethroning of royal or “princess-ly” authority via a castle coup. No fairy tale battle with ogres. No angry townspeople with torches. No, the change came because of a survey! The 1st World Happiness Report survey, created in response to growing global interest in using happiness, not just economic output, to guide public policy. The report ranked countries based on happiness, and back then, Denmark was #1.
The ranking was based on a single question known as the “Cantril Ladder.”
The ladder, named after its creator, Dr. Hadley Cantril — a social scientist and opinion researcher (1906 – 1969) — was introduced in his 1965 book The Pattern of Human Concerns as the “Self-Anchoring Striving Scale,” so you’re excused if you never heard of it! It proposed to measure an individual’s overall well-being or life satisfaction on a scale presented as a ladder – with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom (worst possible life) to 10 at the top (best possible life).
Dr. Cantril instructed interviewers to move their finger “rapidly up and down” the imaginary ladder while asking, “Which step of the ladder would you say you personally stand on at this time?” Why that was necessary, I don’t really know. Maybe because it was 60 years ago and people weren’t familiar with survey methods. Maybe because they needed a little theatrical prompting. Or maybe. . . no, I got nothing.
Anyway, the survey sponsors went the “legacy” route! That 60-year-old question is still used to measure today’s rankings (feel free to add a question mark to that sentence if you feel so moved. I would). Anyway, it’s now administered by the Gallup World Poll across 143 nations and the World Happiness Report authors average each country’s scores over three years. Finland has topped the list at #1 for eight years running, most recently with a 7.74 average. Mostly because of math. Afghanistan comes in last at 1.72. The U.S. peaked at #11 in 2012 and now sits at #24 (6.72), between Belize (6.71) and the United Kingdom (6.73).
You can see the full list online here. It’s kind of interesting. But keep in mind, it’s just math. Relying on a single average from a 10-point scale can mask a lot of complexity and obscure important nuances. Particularly when it comes to something emotional, like “happiness.” Keep in mind different score distributions can yield the same average. Oh, and the scale assumes equal steps between numbers, but people might not perceive them that way, given you’re talking about 143 countries, even with the finger movement. Small differences in average scores can fall within the margin of error (which here are very small) — yet still get interpreted as meaningful. (And yet another reason why I’ve never been a fan of Net Promoter Score.)
And sure, it’s easy to rely on averages when looking at consumer metrics because they simplify complex data into a single number that feels objective and is easy to compare. They’re quick to calculate, widely understood, and give the illusion of precision — even when they mask important variations in sentiment or behavior. This simplicity too often comes at the cost of overlooking extremes, segments, real expectations, or emotional drivers. All the stuff you really need for real and meaningful insight.
For example, in the World Happiness Report, the difference between two countries’ average scores is very small to be statistically significant – less than 0.10. So, look at the rankings. But do the math, too. Rankings alone can be misleading. Today’s consumers — and the marketplace — are far more complex. A 10-point scale, even one disguised as a ladder, rarely cuts it. No matter how many years in a row you use it! Accurate math often yields misleading meaning.
Oh, here’s some math for you. I noticed this year’s happiness rankings showed some regional clustering. Which got me thinking about geography, which got me thinking about weather. Turns out there’s a high correlation between happiness-ranks for the top 25 countries and average country-temperatures. It’s 0.65. And yes, I know, correlation is not causation! But that’s math for you!
That misleading finding ignores factors that might affect views of causation and expectations. The obvious, like occupation, income, education, healthcare. And the less-obvious like social safety nets, work-life balance, and cultural values (like gratitude, civility, and contentment). All of which should be factored in as to what citizens expect will make them happy, don’t you think? Not for nothing, but “food” is likely a substantial contributor to happiness in Afghanistan. Just saying.
Think about your own “happiest life.” Ultimately, I believe, it all comes down to what you expect. You measure the happiness of your life against what you expect your best life could be. Works for people, brands, and countries. Virtually anything – if you measure it correctly. Which explains a lot about differences in country-ratings, and how they look at that ladder. And that’s problematic.
To obviate that kind of problem, Brand Keys assessments include psychological measures of consumer expectations. Expectations offer deeper insight into the emotional drivers of brand loyalty, engagement – and yes, happiness. They uncover what people truly desire from their lives, their brands, and their countries. Gaps between expectations and actual experiences – desire and delivery – are more predictive of beliefs and behaviors than mean scores ever could be. Our approach helps brands — and people —figure out where they really are on the ladder of life. How high “up” really is and what “up” truly means to them.
And yes, writers, philosophers, economists, luminaries, and neuroscientists over the ages haven’t been able to agree on a single definition of “happiness.” Charles Schultz said, “Happiness is a warm puppy.” Albert Schweitzer counselled, “Happiness is good health and a bad memory!” Aristotle felt “Happiness depends upon ourselves.” Abraham Lincoln advised, “Folks are usually about as happy as they make their minds up to be.” And Immanuel Kant noted, “Happiness is not an Ideal of reason, but an emotion.” It’s certainly confounding. And defining and measuring it can be imprecise. And hard.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m all for happiness. The thing is, I’m also for accurately measuring stuff.
And most of the time – like happiness – it requires something more complex than a 10-point scale.
Photo by Lidya Nada on Unsplash
